Podcasts Archive

Here are my top 5 predictions for the energy market in 2023.

1. Strong energy demand
2. Regulations will hit producers hard.
3. It's still hard to find qualified people.
4. Proving emissions become mandatory
5. Investing in automation will grow.

Let’s go through each prediction.

1 Strong Energy Demand

While the overall market is calling for recession, the energy market is anticipating steady to rapid growth.

Goldman Sachs believes a supply shortage and insufficient investment in new supply will drive a bumper year for the overall commodity market but specifically energy as well. There's gonna be new investments in oil, gas, metals, all kinds of stuff. Basically, the beginning of a new supercycle in commodities.

The chart above shows steady growth for oil & natural gas.

But, the big growth is in worldwide demand for LNG growing by 90%!  

So, for natgas producers who are maxing out on available US pipeline infrastructure for domestic sales, having the possibility of getting into the LNG supply chain opens up a huge opportunity to increase revenue outside the US.  

2 Regulations will hit producers hard

New EPA OOOOb/c regulations will increase the required LDAR inspection frequency between 200-700%. I estimate there's gonna be 1.4 million more inspections needed, an increase of 471%.

This will cost an estimated $831 million across US operators.

The new super-emitter regulation is a game-changer because it makes EPA enforcement easier.  The EPA will hire organizations like GHG Sat to use their fleet of satellites to fly over the US to look for 100kg/hour leaks. You could fly a satellite over the US every day looking for 100 kilogram-per-hour leaks.

Getting midstream pipelines approved by FERC is going to take serious negotiation. Operators who can prove methane intensity for their entire supply chain (upstream through midstream) have a chance of negotiating a new permit.

3 Finding Qualified People

As I mentioned above, I estimate operators will need to do an additional 1.4 million more EPA OOOO b/c inspections, an increase of 471%.  If the average LDAR inspector can do 400/year, that’s an additional 3,500 qualified inspectors needed.  This comes at a time when finding qualified people is difficult.

In addition, the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) provides billions of dollars in subsidies for solar, wind and hydrogen projects.  So, oil & gas producers will be competing with government-subsidized organizations for talent.

4 Proving emissions become mandatory

Up till now, operators have been able to turn in a “bottoms-up” emissions inventory report based on EPA formula estimates.  Some operators believe this overstates their emissions. The EPA & environmental groups think bottoms-up estimates is significantly underestimated.

Starting in 2023, proving your methane/GHG intensity with actual measurements will become increasingly mandatory.

The following initiatives will drive this move:

• CO Regulation 22 is mandating that operators prove their GHG intensity (starts 2023).
• OGMP 2.0 Level 5.  About 75% of the world’s producers have voluntarily signed up to prove their methane emissions at the source (level 4) and site/source (level 5). Once a company signs on to OGMP, they have 3 years to hit level 5.  The first cohort are hitting their 3rd year now, so it's time.
• Investors. Increasingly, investors are asking for proof of emissions and tying it to “sustainably-linked” loans, bonds, insurance and investments.
• Buyers. Right now, the EU is desperate for any LNG they can get, so they’ve somewhat relaxed requirements to buy carbon carbon credits to offset LNG emissions. However, when the demand settles on a new normal, it is likely buyers require proof-of-emissions at the source level for any LNG they purchase. This is a precursor to implementing the upcoming EU carbon border tax, which will surely be implemented for oil & gas first.
• The Inflation Reduction Act established a new required EPA methane intensity report with a methane tax for not hitting the benchmark numbers. While the timeline is a bit fuzzy, it’s a matter of when, not if.

CleanConnect.ai has a project called ProveZero that helps operators prove their GHG/Methane intensity using computer vision & machine learning to generate blockchain-based energy certificates.  The ProveZero certificate can be used to generate proof for OGMP, Regulation 22, IRA methane intensity or any other certification program.

If you’re interested in hitting OGMP 2.0 Level 5, I hosted a webinar with Thomas Fox titled, “How to Achieve OGMP 2.0 Level 5 (Gold Certified) in 2023.”  You can register and get instant access to the replay by clicking here:

https://www.ogmp2.com/registration

5 Increased investment in automation

With the increase in regulations, the need to prove your emissions, and the difficulty in hiring qualified personnel, oil & gas companies will increase their investment in automation.

Industrial automation is growing steadily at 10% CAGR and computer-vision automation software is growing even faster.

CleanConnect.ai’s computer vision Autonomous365 suite enables operators to “clone” experienced employees into virtual agents that can be in 10 places at once. This allows producers to operate more efficiently and profitably.

My company, CleanConnect.ai, just received a government certification from CO called Alt-AIMM (alternative approved instrument monitoring method) that allows operators to use computer vision to replace manual LDAR.

Our computer vision suite scans for gas leaks, liquid leaks, fire, smoke, security violations, combustor efficiency, flare monitoring, and much more.  And it works 24x7 in any weather conditions.

You can learn more at: https://www.AutonomousLDAR.com.

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How to Pick the Right Technology to Future-Proof Your EPA OOOO b/c LDAR ProgramIn this live episode of Digital Roughnecks, Ryan Stream (Kairos Aerospace) and Mark Smith will discuss:

• The recent EPA OOOOb/c regulations and the potential impact on energy producers• How the new EPA regulations allow operators to assemble a hybrid monitoring strategy to take advantage of the best technology for their operations

• The pros & cons of methane monitoring technologies (planes, satellites, sensors, continuous-OGI, manual OGI, etc.)

• How you can get help building an LDAR program that will meet current and future EPA requirements

Learn how to prevent tank super-emitter events using Xtreme Tank Technologies automated tool. We discuss:

• The new OOOOb/c super-emitter regulation

• The types of tank super-emitter events

• How the Xtreme Tank tool works to prevent tank super-emitters

• How the Xtreme tool decreases tank safety risks

• How CleanConnect.ai computer vision and Xtreme Tank Technologies can work together to automate EPA compliance and eliminate safety risks

I Summarize 1,438 Pages of New EPA OOOO b/c Regulations into 16-pages In Under 15 Minutes.  

This includes

• EPA OOOOb

• EPA OOOOc

• EPA Appendix K

• Inflation Reduction Act - Methane Intensity Reporting

You can get access to my updated EPA cheat sheet at: https://www.EPACheatSheet.com

Floyd Baker and Mark Smith discuss the benefits of using Digital Twins 2.0 to remotely monitor and manage your assets.In this episode we discuss:

✅ The overwhelming response to our live Digital Twin 2.0 webinar (see webinar replay below)

✅ Why Digital Twin 2.0 will increase operational efficiency & safety

✅ The benefits of being an early adopter of Digital Twins 2.0

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How do you do mandatory LDAR reporting for state/federal when you're using both manual and autonomous LDAR?

In this presentation, Brian Kromer and Mark Smith will announce a brand-new product called Hybrid LDAR Reporting.

This live event will show you how to:

☑ Integrate with CleanConnect.ai Autonomous LDAR

☑ Manage both your manual LDAR and Autonomous LDAR

☑ Use Step2Compliance's easy-to-use cloud reporting platform for your NSPS OOOOa Annual Report (EPA CDX)

I take you for a behind the scenes tour of my podcasting studio to look at the gear and software I use to produce the show. Many of you will be asked to host or participate in webinars, and eventually, you will want to be put on camera. Instead of using the default setup with a built-in microphone and laptop camera, you can upgrade your entire experience for a reasonable price.

Digital Roughnecks interviews Craig O'Niell and Jesse Fenner from Teledyne-FLIR about  Autonomous LDAR

• What is Autonomous LDAR?
• How is FLIR supporting this new trends with its OGI cameras.
• How Autonomous LDAR can help eliminate the future carbon tax.
• How Autonomous LDAR is replacing regulatory manual LDAR.

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Digital Roughnecks interviews Craig O'Niell and Jesse Fenner from Teledyne-FLIR about Autonomous LDAR

• What is Autonomous LDAR?
• How is FLIR supporting this new trends with its OGI cameras.
• How Autonomous LDAR can help eliminate the future carbon tax.
• How Autonomous LDAR is replacing regulatory manual LDAR.

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